Lyndsanity Top 25 Heading Into Week 13
The top 25 rankings are going to work like this. I will list out the top 25 teams and then put an asterisk by those that I feel need a bit of explanation. At the bottom, I will show what the playoff bracket will look like, according to me, with all the information I have at present. That being said, the top 25 lists are tough in my eyes. I think there will be snubs no matter how you look at it, and I think that especially the top 10 to top 12 can get weird with the rankings. With seven ranked teams losing this week, it’s also hard to consider who is moving up and down in the rankings. That being said, here are my rankings as of November 17th, 2024:
Oregon
Ohio State
Texas
Indiana*
Penn State
Alabama
Ole Miss
Georgia
SMU*
Notre Dame
BYU*
Miami
Boise State*
Tennessee
Texas A&M
South Carolina
Colorado
Clemson
Army*
Tulane
Arizona State*
Illinois
UNLV*
Iowa State
Syracuse
Let’s start with Indiana. I posted on LinkedIn about a week ago that if the Hoosiers and Buckeyes were to play that day, the Hoosiers wouldn’t just win, I think they’d boat race the Buckeyes. I’m going to retract that statement the week going into the game. I think Ohio State will win this game, and after this week, we will see Indiana get a reality check. They will still be in playoff contention, but I think Ohio State will beat them badly enough to warrant conversations about whether they should be in the last spot.
SMU:
I know they lost to BYU earlier this year, but I don’t know how much stock you can put into early-season games. Case in point: Colorado lost to Nebraska earlier in the year, but the team looks so different right now that it doesn’t matter. When looking at that game, too, they lost on a last-second field goal to a highly ranked team. I think SMU is one of the most underrated teams in the country; they have every right to be in the top 10. They beat Tulane, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Memphis. They deserve their top 10 spot.
BYU:
One of the more controversial ones, in my opinion. The problem with BYU is that it’s not just losing in college football, it’s when you lose, too. If BYU had lost this game a month ago, I would be fine ranking them a bit higher. I do believe Kansas is a better team than their record shows, but I also think BYU should feel this loss. BYU is also now no longer the favorite in the Big 12, and with BYU losing, they potentially lost their automatic bye bid to Boise State due to strength of schedule. I like BYU nestled in at No. 11; it still gives them respect, but they need to be insanely cautious with their next game against Arizona State, which is essentially an elimination game.
Boise State:
Boise State, in this scenario, is in the playoff, and I just want to make that as clear as I can. It’s a weird and fluky scenario, but in this case, Boise State would play in the first round (more on that later) and be ranked the 13th team in the country in a 12-team playoff. The reason is the automatic bid for the best Group 5 team in the NCAA. My idea here is that Boise State wins the Mountain West (which they can, but Colorado State is going to compete for that conference in the championship game), which they should be able to do. If they slip up once or lose in the conference championship game, that Group 5 bid will more than likely go to Army (more on that later).
Army:
Granted, my thoughts about them could change on Saturday, but I just don’t like their schedule. They are a very good team in the run game, obviously, but the thing that has opened the offense up for them is having Bryson Daily, who doesn’t have an overwhelming arm. However, in Army’s offense, historically, you don’t need a huge arm. He has the arm to at least make the offense work, which is why they have been winning so much this year; they can keep you off balance with the type of quarterback who can make those throws. Army is playing Notre Dame this week, and if they win, the attitude around the team will drastically change, and it will more than likely knock the Irish out of the playoffs.
UNLV:
This is out of pure respect for the coaching job that Barry Odom has done. He’s been phenomenal with this team, and I think that UNLV, aside from a loss to Boise State and Syracuse (two teams I have ranked), has been beating teams up. Oregon State? Win. Kansas? Win. Houston? Win. Fresno State? Win. I like what Odom is doing right now, and keeping this team together after their original starting quarterback decided to hit the transfer portal mid-season due to NIL reasons, Odom has kept the team together and has proven he is going to be a candidate for a Power 4 job very soon.
Syracuse:
The Orange have only lost two games. They lost to Pittsburgh, but they got slapped around during that game, and they lost to Stanford in a major upset, but those are their two bad losses. Other than that, they’ve beaten UNLV, who I ranked higher than them. I get that those two losses should be enough to keep them out of the rankings, but there’s something about the Orange that I can’t shake. They get good enough quarterback play from Kyle McCord, and they have a pretty solid defense. I honestly think the Orange are going to win their next two games and go into the postseason 9-3.
Playoff Bracket:
The teams with the byes would be:
(1) Oregon
(3) Texas
(9) SMU
(11) BYU
Remember, this works because these are the highest-rated conference champions. That means the remaining teams would be:
(2) Ohio State
(4) Indiana
(5) Penn State
(6) Alabama
(7) Ole Miss
(8) Georgia
(10) Notre Dame
(12) Miami
In this scenario, if I understand everything correctly, the first-round games would look like this:
(2) Ohio State vs (12) Miami in Columbus — Winner plays Oregon.
(4) Indiana vs (10) Notre Dame in Bloomington — Winner plays Texas.
(5) Penn State vs (8) Georgia in Happy Valley — Winner plays SMU.
(6) Alabama vs (7) Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa — Winner plays BYU.
If I remember correctly, the quarterfinals should be the winner of Texas’s game and the winner of SMU’s game. So say, for instance, Indiana beats Notre Dame, and then Penn State beats Georgia. Then, in the Texas vs. Indiana game, Texas beats Indiana, and in the SMU vs. Penn State game, Penn State beats SMU. That would set up Texas and Penn State, with the winner going to the national title.
So the rest of the bracket would look like this:
Semi-Final 1: Winner of (1) Oregon vs (2) Ohio State / (12) Miami vs Winner of (11) BYU vs (6) Alabama / (7) Ole Miss — Winner goes to the National Championship.
Semi-Final 2: Winner of (3) Texas vs (4) Indiana / (10) Penn State vs Winner of (9) SMU vs (5) Penn State / (8) Georgia — Winner goes to the National Championship.
