Playoff Preview: West
I have wanted to write some things on the NBA in recent months, but I feel like my real-life job search has gotten in the way, and I have not had the time to. Fortunately, I think I am at a point where I believe I at least have something to keep me occupied, and that means I can once again get back to writing. With that being said, there is no better way to kick that off than talking about how crazy the Western Conference in the NBA is currently. While Oklahoma City has a firm grip on first (shocking no one, that team is a force), 2-10, in a way, is a toss-up in terms of who can grab what seed. Many teams are dealing with major injuries right now, and the bottom of the standings as we speak are surging and trying to make pushes to be at least the sixth seed. With eighteen games left (at least for the team I follow), I wanted to take an actual deep dive into the standings to see potentially where everyone could land, what potential playoff and play-in tournament matchups could be, and how injuries could affect every team going down the line!
To start, the current standings look like this
1) Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11) GB: N/A
2) Los Angeles Lakers (40-22) GB: 12.0
3) Denver Nuggets (41-23) GB: 12.0
4) Memphis Grizzlies (40-24) GB: 13.0
5) Houston Rockets (39-25) GB: 14.0
6) Golden State Warriors: (36-28) GB: 17.0
*7) Minnesota Timberwolves (37-29) GB: 17.0
*8) Los Angeles Clippers (35-29) GB: 18.0
*9) Sacramento Kings (33-30) GB: 19.5
*10) Dallas Mavericks: (32-33) GB: 21.5
(Note: *=Play-In teams)
Injuries
Throughout the west, there are a few major injuries that have the potential to have an impact on seeding. First, and most recently, Lebron James suffered a groin injury in the Lakers game in Boston on Saturday. Shams Charania has reported that James will be out for “a matter of weeks”. The Lakers’ next five games are against the Nets, Bucks, Nuggets, Suns, and Spurs. Seemingly all of them will be without Lebron James, although they will be with their new addition of Luka Doncic.
Grizzlies Forward Jaren Jackson Jr suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain last Sunday against the Atlanta Hawks. While the Grizzlies are optimistic that Jackson Jr will be able to return next week, as his first evaluation post-injury looms in about a week, the Grizzlies may still have to play five games without him this week as they face the Suns, Jazz, Cavaliers, Heat, and Kings albeit four of them at home.
Anthony Davis, who has been out for the Dallas Mavericks since February eighth with a groin injury, is now considered week-to-week and has begun to do some on-court activities, according to CBS. The Mavericks desperately need him, as they have been riddled with injuries, including to their star point guard as well. Kyrie Irving suffered a torn ACL on March 3rd, and will be out for the remainder of the year, and one can assume for a good portion of next year as well. Kyrie’s injury put the nail in the coffin of the Mavericks season, leaving one of the foulest tastes in a fanbase’s mouth this season, with watching their homegrown superstar talent get traded, and then the superstar you got from that trade get injured, and your other star guard injured as well.
Oklahoma City Center Chet Holmgren has been dealing with a small leg injury; however played Sunday vs Denver in a 127-103 win.
Golden State has two injuries to keep an eye on currently. Warriors second-year guard Brandin Podziemski has been dealing with a lower back issue that has withheld him from playing in Golden States 115-110 win on Saturday vs Detroit. He is out tonight vs Portland. Forward Johnathan Kuminga is progressing on the court after suffering a grade-three ankle sprain on January 4th. While there was optimism that he would return on the team’s recent road trip, with Anthony Slater even stating that the soft date was supposed to be the road opener vs the Charlotte Hornets, he has yet to appear since that game in early January. The Warriors hope to have him back at some point before the end of their seven-game homestand, which they just started Saturday.
Potential Playoff Matchups
Oklahoma City will be getting the one seed. That is all but set in stone. With that in mind, if the season ended today, Dallas and Sacramento would meet in the 9 vs 10 play in game in Sacramento, and the Kings would win that. The Mavericks are currently too injured and need to focus on regrouping for next year. That means that Sacramento would play the loser of the Clippers and Timberwolves for the final playoff spot. If I were Oklahoma City, I’d be praying that Los Angeles or Minnesota loses that game. As good as the Thunder are, they are a young and inexperienced team, and any team that has real playoff experience will be able to give them a challenge. Both the Clippers and the Wolves have stars that have gone on deep playoff runs and know how to play playoff basketball. That will be an Achilles for the Thunder in the early part of this potential dynasty while this team develops.
To look at the Lakers matchup, I need to pick a winner of Clippers vs Wolves, which is a harder question. There is something sexy about a potential “Battle of LA” matchup with Lebron James, Luka Doncic, and James Harden, but I think Anthony Edwards gets the job done in Minnesota. Julius Randle is potentially the X-factor of the Western Conference. If he stays healthy and plays well, I think the Wolves have the potential to upset the Lakers. I think the mirage of the Lakers finding a defensive identity recently will fade away. Luka has never been known as a defender, and now all of a sudden, he’s just turned it on because he’s a Laker? No, it doesn’t work that way. Anthony Edwards will be able to torch him if he gets him on a switch. I want to be clear. The Lakers maybe have the most deadly duo in the NBA, but there are major defensive concerns come playoff time, which I think I just need to see to believe.
The current three vs. six matchup would feature a battle of former MVPs. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler III are leading the Warriors to an 11-1 record with Butler III in the lineup, with Steph Curry looking rejuvenated since the trade. Denver, on the other hand, has been a consistent threat to everyone in the NBA throughout the entire season. Nikola Jokic truly is a one-of-a-kind type of player we more than likely will never again see in our lives, recently logging the first 30-20-20 game in NBA history. Jamal Murray looks as good as ever, being the perfect counterpart to Nikola Jokic in Mike Malone’s system. As a Warriors fan, part of me would be happy because I would have the opportunity to try and get to one of the games since I live in Denver, but that’s where the happiness stops. Denver is the team I would least want to see in the playoffs, and I think they are poised to win another championship very soon. I think this series would go to 6 or 7 games, and I don’t even want to try and predict a winner cause that means I am either betting against Stephen Curry or Nikola Jokic, and both of those are dumb bets.
The four vs five matchup is a bit of an oddball, as both teams missed the play-in tournament a year ago. The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets would play, with their series starting in Memphis. Both teams have intriguing pieces, with the Grizzlies having Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Desmond Bane, and the Rockets countering with Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Fred Vanvleet. The winner of the series is more than likely on their way to get bullied by Oklahoma City in round 2, but it will be an important series for both young teams to get more playoff experience and to gauge what they need as teams for the future. There is also an underlying story of Dillon Brooks playing his old team, which would be an interesting story to watch unfold, but the winner of this series ultimately plays Oklahoma City, and I fully expect the Thunder to win that series.
Outlook
In theory, I think it would be easy to say the Thunder have a cakewalk to the Western Conference Finals. If Sacramento wins the final playoff spot, I think that the Thunder have the Easiest path to the WCF possible. I think they beat Sacramento pretty handily, and they ultimately beat the Rockets or Grizzlies in 5 or 6 games at the most. The west finals is where everything gets interesting. The Lakers, Nuggets, Warriors, and who I imagine will be the Timberwolves are all teams that, in my eyes, don’t need home-court advantage to win a playoff series, and any have the potential to upset Oklahoma City. In the first two rounds, Oklahoma City can outmatch their opponents with the talent on the court, no matter who they play in the WCF though they will be going up against more than likely a former MVP (Lakers have Lebron James, Warriors have Stephen Curry, Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City has a 75% chance to face a team with a former MVP in the West Finals) or who is a future face of the league in Anthony Edwards will be a different Animal than what the Thunder had in the first two rounds. I think if the Standings hold firm like this, we are on a collision course for whoever wins the bottom bracket’s second round will win the west. I think if it is one of the Lakers, Warriors, or Nuggets, all of them have the championship caliber and playoff IQ necessary to be able to outwit a young and feisty Oklahoma City team and go to the finals. Where it gets really interesting is if the Timberwolves run the table in the bottom half of the Bracket. If Anthony Edwards goes superhuman and carries the Wolves to the West Finals, I think it will be a battle between Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to see who will be the future face of the league.
TLDR for the whole article: We’re in for a really exciting last part of the NBA season, and you better buckle up.
